Stock Market Analysis: 11/05/2009

First of all, my thoughts and prayers go to the victims of the Fort Hood shooting and their families.

Late post again as my laptop has been having its monthly seizure. Fairly decent trend day on Thursday. The market quickly forgot about yesterday’s Fed day action which is why you don’t put too much importance on what happens on Fed day. It opened higher again but this time held the gap to finish at the high of the day right at resistance in the ES 1062 / SPY 106.70  area which is a 50% fib retracement of the entire downtrend as well as last Thursday’s high. Expect heavy short covering if buyers can somehow take this convincingly above SPY 107.30 or so. The path of least resistance is down but the market is at a critical juncture and anything can happen. All eyes will be on the BLS job data on Friday morning before the open which should set the mood for the day. It should be a wild ride to conclude the week! My short-term bias is to the downside and I positioned myself accordingly at the end of today’s session but bullish action above ES 1062 would very quickly change my mind.

Economic data:

• Today: Unemployment Claims (512K vs 523K), Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q (9.5% vs 6.2%)
• Friday: Non-Farm Employment Change (-173K), Unemployment rate (9.9%), Wholesale Inventories m/m (-0.9%)

Evening reading:

• H1N1 vaccine for the douches first (ABC News)
• Overcoming mood problems in trading (Trader Feed)
• Unhealthy America (NY Times)
• Why doesn’t exercise lead to weight loss (NY Times): Very interesting article. First of all, people need to try harder and longer. If you think a simple 15-minute walk, biking session, or doing a few sets of biceps curls with 20 lbs dumbells is getting you on track of great health, you are dead wrong as these burn very very little calories. Whatever you eat/drink is plenty enough to restore all the energy lost.

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