REDiculous Box Office predictions: Jan 29-31, 2010
Do you like predictions? Because I like predictions. I LOVE predictions. And I figured you might as well. That’s why I’ve decided to start up a new column here on Anomalous Material. While I can’t say I’ve predicted box office numbers before, I follow them pretty closely, and should come pretty close to what the movies actually make. Well, somewhat close. What do you say? Give or take $10 million on each title? That sounds about right….
Don’t Miss the Jump >>
I made the horrible mistake of trying to release this on a Friday. I think I’ll probably move this to Thursdays, as it will give people more time to read before heading to the movies on Friday night. It’s a rookie mistake, I’m allowed a few of those.
Once again, Avatar is aiming for another weekend title, which would be the seventh weekend in a row. That’s just absurd, but when it was released back in December, I had said that if “Book of Eli” didn’t take Avatar down, that it would probably hold the weekend crown until the second weekend of February, in which Percy Jackson is bound to make at least $40 or $50 million. Unless Avatar gets an impossible bump from its Oscar Nomination(s) on Tuesday, it’ll lose that weekend. But at $2 billion and pretty much every box office record under it’s belt, I’m sure the folks at Fox will be ok.
Although, Avatar isn’t guaranteed this weekend. And that is because of the return of Mad Max. Mel Gibson is making his first lead role appearance since “Signs”, and should be able to attract plenty of audience members. It also doesn’t hurt that this movie looks very similar to “Taken”, which did very well in the theatres exactly one year ago. While Gibson has lost his touch a little, this movie is still gonna open up at over $20 million. The only other new wide release opening this weekend is the Kristen Bell led “When in Rome”, which to say the least, doesn’t look the greatest and shouldn’t contend for the top spot at all. Why can’t we get more creative rom-coms like “500 Days of Summer”?
Movie Weeks in release Guesstimation
1. Avatar 7 $24.9 million
2. Edge of Darkness 1 $22.4 million
3. When in Rome 1 $11.4 million
4. The Book of Eli 3 $8.7 million
5. Legion 2 $8.5 million
6. The Tooth Fairy 2 $8.4 million
7. The Lovely Bones 8 $4.7 million
8. Sherlock Holmes 6 $3.9 million
9. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 6 $3.8 million
10. It's Complicated 6 $3.4 million
2 Comments
It will be interesting to see if Avatar finally comes off the first spot. I doubt it… My take:
Avatar: 25.7M
Edge of Darkness: 21.9M
When In Rome: 12.8M
The Book of Eli: 10.1M
Legion: 8.5M
I see Edge of Darkness coming close but still a pretty lackluster open. I think When In Rome will do better than expected simply because the film is atrocious and for some reason, people flock to putrid romantic comedies. Legion should collapse from #2 to #5
We were both very low on Avatar and high on Edge of Darkness. The estimates are up, but I will wait til the actuals come out on monday mornings to do the write-ups. Not like I’m trying to beat anybody to the punch here.
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