2011 Oscar Predictions
Read the Updated 2011 Oscar’s Predictions (October 20, 2010) >>
Red talking. Yes, I know. Making a 2011 Oscar prediction this early is crazy. But you’re reading this, so doesn’t that make you a little crazy yourself? It’s okay. I’ve learned to just accept it. But anyways, we are 11 months away from the next Oscar ceremony, and it’s never too early to predict. I mean, at this point last year “Nine”, “Invictus” and “Amelia” were sure-fire locks for Best Picture nominations. That worked out, didn’t it? All kidding aside, we probably won’t know about any of the films in contention for a nomination until Cannes in early summer. Sundance has come and gone without any glaring favorites like “Precious”, although there were a few acting performances that have a good shot at being nominated. One of the big things that people will notice as they look through the list of movies coming out this year is the number of stars that are not only working for big name directors, but working on several movie projects, which throws an even bigger wrench into trying to predict what roles and/or movies will be nominated.
Best Picture
- “The American”
- “Betty Anne Waters”
- “Biutiful”
- “Brighton Rock”
- “Eat, Pray, Love”
- “Greenberg”
- “Howl”
- “The Kids Are All Right”
- “Never Let Me Go”
- “Somewhere”
Best Director
- Anton Corbijn, “The American”
- Ryan Murphy, “Eat, Pray, Love”
- Noah Baumbach, “Greenberg”
- Lisa Cholodenko, “The Kids Are All Right”
- Sofia Coppola, “Somewhere
Best Actor
- George Clooney, “The American”
- Sam Riley, “Brighton Rock”
- Robert Duvall, “Get Low”
- Jack Nicholson, “How Do You Know?”
- Colin Farrell, “The Way Back”
Best Actress
- Julia Roberts, “Eat, Pray, Love”
- Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right”
- Annette Benning, “Mother and Child”
- Carey Mulligan, “Never Let Me Go”
- Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”
Best Supporting Actor
- Chris Cooper, “The Company Men”
- Richard Jenkins, “Eat, Pray, Love”
- James Cromwell, “Secretariat”
- Josh Brolin, “True Grit”
- Ed Harris, “The Way Back”
Best Supporting Actress
- Helen Mirren, “Brighton Rock”
- Kim Basinger, “Charlie St. Cloud”
- Bryce Dallas Howard, “Hereafter”
- Annette Benning, “The Kids Are All Right”
- Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
Best Adapted Screenplay
- “Brighton Rock”
- “Eat, Pray, Love”
- “Love and Other Drugs”
- “Never Let Me Go”
- “The Town”
Best Original Screenplay
- “All Good Things”
- “Biutiful”
- “The Company Men”
- “Greenberg”
- “The Kids Are All Right”
Best Animated Feature
- “Despicable Me”
- “Toy Story 3″ (Anybody else get the vibe that this is gonna be Pixar’s first flop?)
- “Yogi Bear”
23 Comments
Very interesting post!
I hope your right about Julia Roberts! Also will be interesting to see how those films do as very good choices at this point in time. We will have to wait to see which of these films sink or swim!
Eat, Pray, Love? Not if I have anything to say about it.
And I have the sinking feeling that Betty Anne Waters will end up like Amelia.
But otherwise, probably.
@ Caz- Thanks! Yeah, it seems like it has been a while since Julia has had a really meaty role. She had “Charlie Wilson’s War”, but that wasn’t exactly a lead role.
@ Ripley- I have a similar feeling for Betty Anne Waters, but we’ll see. Tony Goldwyn has been more relevant the past half decade than Mira Nair. Plus, the last time he teamed up with scribe Pamela Gray was a pretty good movie (A Walk on the Moon).
If there is a favorite out there that I would compare to a “bust” from last year, it would be pairing up “Inception” with “Public Enemies”. While I think Enemies was criminally misunderstood and underapreciated, there are parallels between the movies. The lead actor being a major star that is always in contention for an Oscar nomination, both have a director that is considered among the best of the past decade but yet have been largely ignored by the Academy,and both summer “blockbuster” releases. Heck, I’ll even throw in that both movies having my French Goddess in there.
Very interesting, I think you’ve got the inside track on all of this and will kill at the Sarahnomics Oscar party next year, but it strikes me that if you have so little regard for the Oscars as to be able to predict the winners a year out from the ceremony, that you might skip out on the exercise or make reference to a reputable awards show like te SAG awards or something like that. I’ll admit, I’m guilty of the same thing: we tried to have an Oscar free show as a kind of counterculture effort an all we wound up talking about was the Oscars. Fortunately, nobody complained.
wasn’t the general consensus that Howl was mediocre at Sundance?
Where’s the love for Darren Aronofsky’s Black Swan?
Still a very interesting list, will see how it all plays out
True Grit
Inception
Black Swan
I get the feeling that DiCaprio might win Best Actor this year regardless of the role he’s nominated for – hopefully it’s Shutter Island though.
It’s a little depressing that we can spot things this far out, but it looks good.
I’ll insert Dennis Quaid into the Best Actor Category for The Special Relationship (Morgan and Sheen just produce Best Actor nominees) and give the screenplay a nomination (not sure about Best Picture, though).
@ Steve- Yeah, it almost doesn’t matter how much you may disagree with the Academy and who they select, they always end up being the bar for which everything is compared.
@ Bear- Hm. Didn’t see that about Howl. Thanks. As for Black Swan, it’s being called a supernatural thriller, something that the Academy doesn’t usually recognize.
@ Fitz- True Grit was #11 on my list. Chances of it being nominated over about half my list are pretty high, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger on it. The Coen brothers have been on fire lately, so it should be a pretty good remake.
@ Darren- It is a year out, but me and Castor are use to predicting/reading about the NFL Draft 3 or 4 years ahead of time, so this just pales in comparison.
what about “The Tree of Life” starring Brad Pitt and Sean Penn and also directed by Terrence Malick
I second that! Red, you’ve got some explaining to do!
“The Tree of Life” is probably my most anticpated movie for 2010 other than “Inception”. And while Malick is a legend around these parts, he has largely been overlooked by the Academy.
And this movie tends me of two films that were for the most part ignored by Oscar. First, the subject matter of this film might be a little to “artsy” for what the Oscars tends go after, much like “The Fountain”. Aronofsky’s film was about as artistic as a film can get, and was very well made, but it was just too polarizing for it to receive enough support for awards.
Secondly, Tree of Life also reminds me of “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”. An artistic film that is staring Brad Pitt that has had it’s release date delayed several times. Hell, I’ll even throw out the movies were produced by the same company. Tree of Life has yet to get a distributor, although I expect Warner Brothers to attatch itself as it usually does with Plan B productions.
Overthinking this? Maybe, but when you see favorite movies ignored by the Academy year in and year out, you tend to see a pattern begin to evolve. And Tree of Life just screams out snub to me.
All very good points red, I was upset when Jesse James only had one nomination. But wouldn’t that be something though, to see Tree of life and Terrence Malick get nominated and win. And possibly see Brad Pitt, Sean Penn, or Jessica Chastain get nominated. That would be vey cool. Can’t wait to see what Malick has in store for us.
I doubt “Greenberg” is making it now … especially after Refundgate in California. And I’ll echo my skepticism about “Eat Pray Love,” but it could be that kind of “Julie & Julia”/”Devil Wears Prada” movie that hits big at the Globes.
My dark horse pick is “Black Swan,” the gritty and intense Aronofsky flick with Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis.
Oh gosh, and “Inception!” How could I forget “Inception?!?!”
Yeah…I figured “Greenberg” was a bit of wishful thinking, but I thought it was going to be a much better movie.
I’m thinking more and more that “True Grit” just might be the favorite to take home the grand prize, even if I did leave it off my list.
“Inception” is probably my most anticpated movie of this year, but for some reason I think it’ll get overlooked by the academy when it comes to Best Picture. I think it’ll probably get some tech noms like Art Design, but not a nod for the most important prize. To copy another comment of mine from above:
‘If there is a favorite out there that I would compare to a “bust” from last year, it would be pairing up “Inception” with “Public Enemies”. While I think Enemies was criminally misunderstood and underapreciated, there are parallels between the movies. The lead actor being a major star that is always in contention for an Oscar nomination, both have a director that is considered among the best of the past decade but yet have been largely ignored by the Academy,and both summer “blockbuster” releases. Heck, I’ll even throw in that both movies having my French Goddess in there.’
How could you forget Matt Damon performs???
*Best Actor in a lead role:
*Matt Damon (Green Zone)
*Matt Damon (Hereafter)
*Best Supporting Actor:
*Matt Damon (Margaret)
*Matt Damon (True Grit)
BEST FILM
Another Year
Everything You’ve Got
The Ghost Writer
Hereafter
Inception
Shutter Island
Toy Story 3
True Grit
The Way Back
You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger
BEST ANIMATED FILM
How to Train your Dragon
The Illusionist
Shrek Forever After
Tangled
Toy Story 3
BEST DIRECTOR
Mike Leigh – Another Year
Roman Polanski – The Ghost Writer
Clint Eastwood – Hereafter
Martin Scorsese – Shutter Island
Peter Weir – The Way Back
BEST LEADING ACTOR
Matt Damon – Hereafter
Johnny Depp – The Rum Diary
Leonardo DiCaprio – Shutter Island
Michael Douglas – Solitary Man
Robert Duvall – Get Low
BEST LEADING ACTRESS
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Anne Hathaway – Love and Other Drugs
Leslie Manville – Another Year
Julianne Moore – Chloe
Hilary Swank – Conviction
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jim Broadbent – Another Year
Ed Harris – The Way Back
Ewan McGregor – The Ghost Writer
Bill Murray – Get Low
Jack Nicholson – Everything You’ve Got
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Patricia Clarkson – Shutter Island
Ruth Sheen – Another Year
Sissy Spacek – Get Low
Naomi Watts – Mother and Child
Nice list. A couple things:
- I don’t think The Ghost Writer will make it. While I did like the movie, I don’t think it got enough reception to really make a charge at a nomination. And while it is one of the better films to be released so far, that’s more due to the fact that most of the good movies have yet to be released. It’ll probably finish outside my top 20, despite being in my top 5 as of right now.
- I definitely should’ve had The Illusionist in my Animated list, but I highly doubt that Shrek makes it.
Very interesting post to read. Greenberg was a bust and in my opinion, a big disappointment. Won’t get one nom. Sadly there has only been one great film released this year (Girl with the Dragon tattoo) and I am hoping that it is not forgotten come Oscar time. Oscar movies better pick up big time in the 2nd half of 2010 or this Oscar season will suck and be filled with average movies….weak year so far! You do point out some very good ones that are due out later – let’s hope they live up to the hype!
What about Inception??? its a really good film
While I’m still hesitant to say it’ll be a Best Pic nominee, it’s hard to argue against it right now. It’ll definitely make its mark in the technical fields, though.
BEST FILM
01) The King´s Speech
02) Toy Story 3
03) The Social Network
04) Inception
05) 127 Hours
06) The Way Back
07) Shutter Island
08) The Kids Are All Right
09) True Grit
10) Another Year
BEST ANIMATED FILM
01) Toy Story 3
02) How to Train your Dragon
03) Tangled
BEST DIRECTOR
01) Christopher Nolan – Inception
02) Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
03) David Fincher – The Social Network
04) Martin Scorsese – Shutter Island
05) Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
BEST LEADING ACTOR
01) Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
02) Robert Duvall – Get Low
03) Leonardo DiCaprio – Shutter Island
04) Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
05) Jeff Bridges – True Grit
BEST LEADING ACTRESS
01) Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
02) Natalie Portman – Black Swan
03) Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
04) Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
05) Hilary Swank – Conviction
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01) Ed Harris – The Way Back
02) Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
03) Sam Rockwell – Conviction
04) Christian Bale – The Fighter
05) Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01) Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
02) Miranda Richardson – Made in Dagenham
03) Dianne Wiest – Rabbit Hole
04) Melissa Leo – The Fighter
05) Sissy Spacek – Get Low
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01) Christopher Nolan – Inception
02) David Seidler – The King’s Speech
03) Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg – The Kids Are All Right
04) Darren Aronofsky & Mark Heyman – Black Swan
05) Mike Leigh – Another Year
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01) Michael Arndt – Toy Story 3
02) Aaron Sorkin – The Social Network
03) Joel & Ethan Coen – True Grit
04) Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini & Daniel Woodrell – Winter’s Bone
05) Peter Weir – The Way Back
How in the world you forgot Leo in Shutter Island for Best Actor category???
Oscars completely ignored “The Dark Knight” that year and it was really sad. Nolan should have won but this is his year. No matter what. Inception, best movie I have seen in years. By far the best! If by any means Oscars ignores Inception this year, then it would be the worst/pathetic/sad/lame moment in the history. But if they go with a movie just like they did last year with hurt locker then maan they are gonna suck so badly.
Best Picture: Inception
Best Director: Nolan (Period)
Best Original Screenplay:Inception
Best original score: Hans Zimmer for Inception
Best editing: Inception
Best Cinematography: Inception
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio for Shutter Island
Rest of the categories: Frankly, I dont care. You can give it to anybody.
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