Five months have passed since my initial set of predictions, and while the first half of the year in film has been quite disappointing, that isn’t to say that things aren’t a little bit clearer. Films that we thought of as possible contenders are now in our rear-view mirror, leaving us to wonder what exactly everybody was thinking in giving the movie any type of hype whatsoever. But that’s just part of the game, I guess. You either look brilliant in making a right prediction, or you look like a fool (of a Took!) championing a film that turns out to be a complete and utter mess (here’s looking at you, Greenberg).
While most films have yet to be seen, that’ll change here soon with the coming of major festivals in Toronto and Venice. Cannes came and gone with hardly any major contenders standing out from the rest, although Another Year seems to hold strong as a possibility as one of the final ten. This should become a monthly feature until the winners are announced early next year, though I would expect most of these predictions to change quite a bit from now until January. Below will be my set of predictions for August, with movies on the “bubble” added this time.
Best Picture
| Rank | Name/Title | Previous |
| 1 | "Another Year" | N/A |
| 2 | "True Grit" | N/A |
| 3 | "Toy Story 3" | N/A |
| 4 | "Love and Other Drugs" | N/A |
| 5 | "Conviction" | N/A |
| 6 | "127 Hours" | N/A |
| 7 | "Brighton Rock" | N/A |
| 8 | "Inception" | N/A |
| 9 | "Somewhere" | N/A |
| 10 | "The Kids Are All Right" | N/A |
| 11 | "Secretariat" | N/A |
| 12 | "The King's Speech" | N/A |
| 13 | "Never Let Me Go" | N/A |
| 14 | "The Fighter" | N/A |
| 15 | “Made in Dagenham” | N/A |
Best Actor
| Rank | Name/Title | Previous |
| 1 | Robert Duvall ("Get Low") | N/A |
| 2 | Jeff Bridges ("True Grit") | N/A |
| 3 | Jake Gyllenhaal ("Love and Other Drugs") | N/A |
| 4 | Jim Broadbent ("Another Year") | N/A |
| 5 | Colin Firth ("The King's Speech") | N/A |
| 6 | Jack Nicholson ("Everything You've Got") | N/A |
| 7 | Andy Serkis ("Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll") | N/A |
| 8 | James Franco ("127 Hours") | N/A |
| 9 | Javier Bardem ("Biutiful") | N/A |
| 10 | Sam Riley ("Brighton Rock") | N/A |
Best Actress
| Rank | Name/Title | Previous |
| 1 | Jennifer Lawrence ("Winter's Bone") | N/A |
| 2 | Anne Hathaway ("Love and Other Drugs") | N/A |
| 3 | Freida Pinto ("Miral") | N/A |
| 4 | Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right") | N/A |
| 5 | Diane Lane ("Secretariat") | N/A |
| 6 | Lesley Manville ("Another Year") | N/A |
| 7 | Julia Roberts ("Eat, Pray, Love") | N/A |
| 8 | Robin Wright Penn ("The Conspirator") | N/A |
| 9 | Carey Mulligan ("Never Let Me Go") | N/A |
| 10 | Natalie Portman ("Black Swan") | N/A |
Best Supporting Actor
| Rank | Name/Title | Previous |
| 1 | Sam Rockwell ("Conviction") | N/A |
| 2 | John Malkovich ("Secretariat") | N/A |
| 3 | Geoffrey Rush ("The King's Speech") | N/A |
| 4 | Josh Brolin ("True Grit") | N/A |
| 5 | Colin Farrell ("The Way Back") | N/A |
| 6 | Willem Dafoe ("Miral") | N/A |
| 7 | Frank Mangella ("All Good Things") | N/A |
| 8 | Bill Murray ("Get Low") | N/A |
| 9 | Christian Bale ("The Fighter") | N/A |
| 10 | Guy Pearce ("The King's Speech") | N/A |
Best Supporting Actress
| Rank | Name/Title | Previous |
| 1 | Helena Bonham Carter ("The King's Speech") | N/A |
| 2 | Andrea Riseborough ("Brighton Rock") | N/A |
| 3 | Julianne Moore ("The Kids Are All Right") | N/A |
| 4 | Elle Fanning ("Somewhere") | N/A |
| 5 | Keira Knightley ("Never Let Me Go") | N/A |
| 6 | Bryce Dallas Howard ("Hereafter") | N/A |
| 7 | Sissy Spacek ("Get Low") | N/A |
| 8 | Hailee Steinfeld ("True Grit") | N/A |
| 9 | Melissa Leo ("The Fighter") | N/A |
| 10 | Dale Dickey ("Winter's Bone") | N/A |
Best Director
| Rank | Name/Title | Previous |
| 1 | Mike Leigh ("Another Year") | N/A |
| 2 | Danny Boyle ("127 Hours") | N/A |
| 3 | Joel and Ethan Coen ("True Grit") | N/A |
| 4 | Sofia Coppola("Somewhere") | N/A |
| 5 | Edward Zwick ("Love ad Other Drugs") | N/A |
| 6 | Rowan Joffe ("Brighton Rock") | N/A |
| 7 | Christopher Nolan ("Inception") | N/A |
| 8 | Tom Hooper ("The King's Speech") | N/A |
| 9 | Nigel Cole ("Made in Dagenham") | N/A |
| 10 | Darren Aronofsky ("Black Swan") | N/A |
Best Adapted Screenplay
| Rank | Name/Title | Previous |
| 1 | "Love and Other Drugs" | N/A |
| 2 | "True Grit" | N/A |
| 3 | "The Social Network" | N/A |
| 4 | "Toy Story 3" | N/A |
| 5 | "Never Let Me Go" | N/A |
| 6 | "Brighton Rock" | N/A |
| 7 | "Winter's Bone" | N/A |
| 8 | "How to Train Your Dragon" | N/A |
| 9 | "Miral" | N/A |
| 10 | "Rabbit Hole" | N/A |
Best Original Screenplay
| Rank | Name/Title | Previous |
| 1 | "Another Year" | N/A |
| 2 | "Black Swan" | N/A |
| 3 | "The Kids Are All Right" | N/A |
| 4 | "Conviction" | N/A |
| 5 | "The King's Speech" | N/A |
| 6 | "Hereafter" | N/A |
| 7 | "The Illusionist" | N/A |
| 8 | "Blue Valentine" | N/A |
| 9 | "Made in Dagenham" | N/A |
| 10 | "Inception" | N/A |
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35 Comments
Interesting choices. My mehness towards Coens immediately goes against True Grit, but with this year just about anyone can get in to the top 10 with a solid effort.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this year becomes a “we’ve loved you so long so here” year, sort of how I felt last year was. People like Arronofsky and Nolan getting some awards long overdue.
I would love to see Nolan and Aronsofsky finally get rewarded.
I’m on and off with the Coens, but they Oscars have been pretty friendly with them for a couple years running now, and it can be argued that True Grit has more Oscar bait to it than a No Country or Serious Man.
aw man. do we have to talk about Oscars already?
impressive list though Castor. most impressive.
Serkis is great in SexDrugsRockRoll. not a chance in hell of being nominated though
Yo, it’s Red’s. I would never have the audacity of making such predictions so early in the year
Has it even been released yet?
Limited here in the states. It’s been hitting the festival circuit since late last year.
I doubt that it’ll get nominated, but it’s going to get some votes. He’s already got some awards success at the end of last year, so I could see some smaller associations honoring him. That alone will give him some traction and enough to get on my big board.
I dont know if Amy Adams is the female lead in the boxer or a supporting actress. But from what I have seen from that film she really gets to do a completely different kind of tone and with her recent academy awards history I think she’ll be a serious contender. (And no I am not just saying that because she is in my fantasy draft pitch! =))
I doubt there is a female lead in The Fighter. I’m pretty sure she would be categorized as in a supporting role.
Yeah, I am with Castor on this one and saying that there probably isn’t a female lead in that movie. I placed the movie at #14, but I don’t think that it will be a movie that Academy members will vote for.
Still no love for the Tree of Life Red?
I heard it got pushed back to next year.
no shocker there….and will be pushed after that most likely.
It’s not news, just pure conjecture at this point.
I highly doubt that it’s getting released this year. Until I hear otherwise, I’m going to assume that it comes out next year.
If Ms. Rapace does not get an Oscar nom (let alone a win, thus far) then something is wrong. The two best performances by leading ladies so far this year (in my opinion) has been her tour-de-force turn as Lisbeth Salander and Hye-ja Kim in Mother. Both superb. Both deserving – though the Academy is usually ignorant on these things and will only nominate one at most.
Wow Rapace as academy award nominee that would be quiet a surprise to most swedes I believe. Heck a lot of us don’t think that much of her portrayal but she is sizzling abroad. No doubt about it. I’d give it a 50/50 chance she’d actually go to the event if she is nominated.
Wasn’t Mother eligible for last year since it was the Korea Foreign Film nomination? But I agree, Hye-ja Kim should or should have gotten a nod for Actress.
I did read Noomi Rapace will be campaigning, which would be totally awesome.
I will add to the list Marion Cotillard for Inception – for missing last year for Public Enemies – and Gordon Levitt. ;P
Pretty rare for foreign-language actors to get noms, though, right? Sure, Cotillard won, and if I recall, Benigni won, but I can’t recall even too many other nominees in the last 15 years or so. Could be way off, but I don’t think so.
In other words, I don’t think Rapace will be getting one. And to be honest, great as she was in the part, I don’t really think she’ll be one of the five best performances by the end of the year. Being in three movies with the same character won’t exactly help, either – split votes and all.
Yeah, Rapace is a realy longshot for a nomination. Not only is it a foreign role, it’s just not a role that the Academy would go after. As much as I liked the the character she created, it probably won’t end as one of the top five performances. I love the comparisons to Thurman’s Bride, but only a poor man’s version.
what is a jake gyllenhaal? Sounds like something that might be pretentious, off-putting and box-office poision….I will have to look that up.
I am always reminded of that scene in Family Guy with the Gyllenhaal family dinner, with Maggie and Jake squabbling. “Kids… you’re both just terrible.”
Jake’s bound to take a huge step forward if Love of Other Drugs proves to be anywhere near the quality that the trailer promises it to be.
If Jennifer Lawerence actually gets nominated there might just be hope for this world yet.
I’d be shocked if Lawrence didn’t make the cut, and I don’t even feel silly for saying that at this early stage.
It does seem a smidge early for this, but given that we have ten BP nominees again this year, we can at least talk about that.
At the moment I’d wager that SHUTTER ISLAND (mysteriously unmentioned thus far) is a lock for a spot. INCEPTION should get one too unless there’s some sort of massive anti-Nolan sentiment for some reason. After that – who knows?
It’s usually around now that I start getting anxious for TIFF, especially given that four of the last five BP winners played the festival (THE DEPARTED being the exception).
Shutter Island will be long forgotten by the time January comes around, I’m afraid.
If either Conviction or Secratariat get a nomination, much less win, I will lose faith in humanity. What have you wrought, Blind Side?
I agree with you on the Secretariat part, but I think Conviction (horrid name change, by the way) might be pretty good. Now if both Secretariat and Eat, Pray, Love get nominated, I might have to switch over to just following the Globes.
I am willing to bet all of my money that “TOY STORY 3″ will get a nom for BEST PICTURE. I am also willing to bet that it will be the first animated film to WIN.
TS3 nomination = slightly possible
TS3 win = wickedly unlikely
Remember that even with ten slots, Oscar has a wicked disposition against animation (hence the reason that no actor has ever been nominated for voice work).
UP last year was a bit of a fluke, and was really only enabled by the fact that 2009 was *such* a crap year for movies.
I’m with Hatter here, though I’d say a TS3 nom is a lock as well. But a win? Fuggedaboudit.
I would be glad to see TS3 win the Oscar. To me its the best film of the year with Kick-Ass coming in second (so far).
I think it’s fun to see this, Red, and I applaud you for putting it out so early, what with most of it having to be hearsay.
I’m holding out hope for the Dennis Hopper-looking guy from Winter’s Bone to get a Supporting nod (Teardrop – I forget his real name. He’s bound to be a future FF-UN on my site…).
Thanks Fletch. Yeah, support for the secondary characters from Winter’s Bone has really picked picked up in the past couple weeks.
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