3 Reasons Tron Legacy Will Be a Flop
From a financial standpoint, one has to question why Disney would make a sequel to a middling movie that barely registered a blip at the box office back in the eighties. It is quite obvious that they are placing all their chips on turning this into another mainstream blockbuster franchise but disappointing results could seriously affect whether we will see more Tron movies. Let’s take a look at three reasons why Tron Legacy (December 17) could be a potential flop.
1. Cult movie with a limited fan base
The original Tron movie underperformed at the box office, grossing $33 million at the box office on a $17 million production budget. It certainly did not take the world by storm and instead became a cult movie with a small hardcore group of fans. Recent movies with limited built-in fan base such as Watchmen ($108 million), Kick Ass ($48 million) and more recently Scott Pilgrim vs. The World ($31 million) have proven to be significant or even crippling failures at the box office, failing to attract much of an audience outside their respective fanboys crowd. Whether Tron Legacy can reach out to mainstream audience who have no knowledge whatsoever of the Tron universe will be the key to its box office success.
2. $320 million price tag
With the production budget reported at $170 million and $150 million more allocated for marketing, Tron Legacy will likely need to gross in the neighborhood of $600 million worldwide for the studio to barely break even. The expensive price tag comes despite the fact that there isn’t any real star power in the film. Director Joseph Kosinki is making his commercial feature debut while the ancient Jeff Bridges highlights a cast that also includes up-and-coming actors such as Garrett Hedlund and Olivia Wilde. Instead, the movie’s main appeal will be its visuals which have been praised in early reviews in spite of the lacking screenplay.
3. Mediocre tracking
With such a high production cost, Tron Legacy will need to open well upward of $50 million to have a shot at recovering its price tag. However, early tracking is pointing to an opening weekend gross of as low as $35 million. While tracking is occasionally off the mark, it certainly must be worrisome for the studio to get such a relatively low reading of interest in their pricey investment. Nevertheless, with one week to go and Disney’s marketing in full swing, there is a good chance that the movie will never see that kind of mediocre numbers but who knows? Stranger things have happened before.
So will you see Tron Legacy? Do you think it will flop at the box office? Let us know below!
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43 Comments
I suspect that that 35 million number is a bit low– the figures will almost without a doubt get boosted by IMax/3D– but I feel like it’s still destined to be floppish. In its favor, it’s at least open to a wide audience thanks to its rating, but I doubt that Tron is going to light up the box office nonetheless.
I think the 3D price are already discounted in. It would be a bit pointless for these survey companies to not take that into account.
Man, the budget is ridiculous and half of it is for marketing!! I’m still curious to see it as the critics praise the visuals, but sounds like this one suffers from the lack of charisma of the lead. Still, I don’t think it’ll be a complete flop, but because of that extraneous budget, it probably won’t be as profitable as they’d hope.
At first, I want to see for the visual too, just like Avatar, eventhough I hate the story but I enjoy the visual.
about 2 weeks ago I found another reason to watch it, Cillian Murphy is playing cameo…Tron turns from might-see to MUST-see tho he will only appear for 5mnts
As I said, that was the 1st reason
The budget is crazy.
I’ve always felt the original Tron was a better concept than film. It seems to me that the second installment is reliving that – which I find a bit disappointing.
I wonder if the tracking is low due to Tron fatigue. They have been promoting this film since Avatar first hit theatres. There have been so many lacklustre 3D pictures to hit the big screen in between that time that the whole “it will look cool 3D” factor does not carry the same weight anymore.
If the film delivers visually, I could imaging a bunch of people going to the theater watching it over and over again.
Online, it seems it’s got quite a bit of buzz… but then again, the people I’ve been reading loved Tron. I had the chance to be at a lecture with the filmmaker, and I really appreciate Tron as a CGI starter, but the film didn’t do anything for me.
You also need to count merchandise.
I’m only hoping to not hate it, you know? Like make me feel violent towards the characters. LOL
Well I’m seeing an advanced screening on Sunday but I do plan on seeing it in 2D, 3D and Imax at least once.
And they have put a lot of merch out there recently and it seems to be selling well
I really think the biggest obstacle that this film has to overcome is its parentage. Nobody today knows what Tron is unless they’ve seen Tron memes. Basically what that means is that outside of the geek hemisphere (and even inside, to a lesser degree), Tron is a punchline. That’s kind of a hard sell considering the budget.
I also think the constant comparisons to Avatar are going to really damage it.
I agree. Not so much as a punchline but I do think Tron has become like that inner geek circle kind of thing nowadays mostly since Disney has been trying to bury this film.
It looks like an exciting film but I agree with you that it will probably flop. I’m not in line to see this though I’m intrigued. It’s been a very long time since I’ve seen “Tron” so I’m on the fence about it. Plus, I’ve got other films I want to see.
Yes I’m on the fence myself and I feel the trailers haven’t done a very good job of attracting people who don’t know anything about Tron which was made 30 years ago.
Boy, do I feel old – not only did I have absolutely no idea the original ‘Tron’ was a ‘cult’ film, I thought everyone had at least heard of it. I knew it wasn’t a big hit movie but I guess I never thought of it as an underachiever either.
Well, I’m gonna see ‘Legacy’ regardless.
http://widescreenworld.blogspot.com/2010/11/tron.html
The fact that it’s a cult movie doesn’t mean only 10 people have seen it. Fight Club is a cult movie, so is The Big Lebowski. Many movies come and go, some even make a ton of money at the box office but only a few become cult movies because of a small group of hardcore fans (hence the analogy of cult).
I’m gonna have to agree with Rich – I, too was unaware that Tron was a ‘cult’ film. It may not have grossed a ton upon its original release, but it is (or was) a wildly popular movie that gets a shitload of credit for the technology it offered and is probably one of the more influential films and important films of the last 40 years from that standpoint.
Is Bridges ‘ancient’ for True Grit? Is he more ancient than Harrison Ford was for Crystal Skull? I realize that comparison makes Tron look bad since it can’t compete with the Jones series, but Bridges is younger than Ford, Stallone, Sam Jackson, etc. Basically, I don’t think his age is a concern.
In case you can’t tell, I’m dying to see it, and I’m not even a superfan of the original.
Bridges isn’t considered an action star like those guys are though. I don’t think age is as big a deal for him as it is for them. Indeed, Bridges used age to his advantage pretty well in ‘Crazy Heart.’
But Crazy Heart was an award bait movie and had no intention of grossing $1 billion worldwide.
I’m disappointed to see that this cost so much and probably won’t make a return on the investment: but I wonder, will it do well on BluRay do you think? Perhaps the added bonus of Avatar-like visuals (at least in terms of visual richness) will make Tron Legacy a big seller on the home market?
I have no plans to see it in cinemas, but will most definitely pick it up for a demo disc in the old home theatre!
A lot of early reviews are saying that this is up there with Avatar in terms of showing off why Blu-Ray is amazing. They say it’s an audio and visual treat if nothing else. Even the scathing reviews seem to agree that the visuals are awesome.
I’m hoping that “ancient” remark is tongue-in-cheek. Bridges is still a star if only to people who appreciate good film, or people over 30.
Or almost 20 year olds who grew up in an extremely nerdy house lol
I love Jeff Bridges, True Grit is my most anticipated movie for December. Obviously (or not), I wasn’t denigrating the dude
Whew…at first I thought this was going to be a bashfest against Tron and I’m about one custom costume away from a devout fanboy of the original. But on the points you say I find it hard to disagree for the most part.
While I don’t think Tron is a cult film per se, it’s been a while since it’s been in the public’s eye and ever since they announced Tron Legacy it seems Disney is doing it’s damnedest to bury Tron and act like it never existed. Almost like they are treating it like a re-imagining instead of a sequel. Best example: The Blu-Ray re-release has been done for about two months and ready to ship but instead of releasing it the same week as Tron Legacy, Disney instead switched the release date to “maybe 2011 possibly 2012.” It’s like Disney is cultifying it’s own product and almost limiting it to the point where it’s bound to possibly bomb.
The price tag means nothing to me mostly since if you look at The Expendables, Avatar, or other recent GIANT blockbusters, they’ve tended to sell well. But with the above stated, I’m not so sure.
And I don’t know much about tracking but I’d have to agree with those numbers at this point. People seem interested but to what point. That and a lot of young critics and viewers haven’t even seen the original so they have nothing to go on. Oh well…
You forgot number 4. They’re making it simply because they think it will look cool in 3D
I really hope this doesn’t flop, this is the movie I’ve been looking forward to the most this year.
I’m not at all interested in this movie really. Some of the trailers have looked cool. Rather, the visuals and the effects look cool. But that’s about it. I seriously questioned, from the moment this was announced, why they would make a sequel to the crapfest that was TRON. With that kind of money put into this, yea I can definitely see this being a flop. I think they got in over their heads on this one.
That being said, this one just screams “SPEED RACER” for me. Cult following from a time that’s passed. Same kind of “style”. Riding solely on special effects. That’s exactly what this reminds me of: Speed Racer. And we know how that turned out.
Ouch. Looking forward to eventually seeing this but I can’t argue with it being a possible flop. Tron is hardly the most well-known of 80s fantasy films.
I think you’re probably right. This is not only a sequel to a movie few people saw, but it’s also about twenty years too late. It’s like making a sequel to The Last Starfighter.
I’m waiting for the 3D bubble to burst, like it always does, and maybe this is the movie to do it.
3-D is not going to go away this time. With pirating and general douchiness on behalf of film pirates this is one way theatres will stay afloat.
Three (4) reasons why I think (hope) you’re wrong:
1. The digital world of computers is something that Hollywood has often tried to tackle and siphon some money away from, mostly unsuccessfully. Movies about video games are notoriously bad. But the movies that have been able to weave more of an impressionistic view of computers, rather than a quantitative one (Hackers vs. The Net) have fared better over the long term.
2. The investment that Disney has poured into Tron has to be more forward thinking than a single film. I believe that much like Avatar, Disney’s been investing for projects to follow Tron, whether they have anything to do with Tron or not. The legacy of Tron Legacy is where they’re expecting to see a return on their investment. Besides, it’s Disney.
2 1/2. No star power? Oscar winning actor Jeff Bridges? (x2) Current “it” girl Olivia Wilde? Daft Punk!?!?
3. I don’t hold with tracking, although I will concede that many of my friends had no idea this movie existed, or more importantly that it was coming out this weekend. Still, I don’t underestimate Disney’s ability to hype up one of its properties – even if it’s at the last minute. I have been noticing that they’ve been doing a lot of promotion for it during certain ABC shows. Maybe they needed to time that out a little better.
Gentlemen, start your lightcycles!
2) Yes, they do. They want to make this a mega-franchise like Pirates of the Caribbean!
2.5) Uh that’s not what I call star power
Will Smith has star power, George Clooney has star power, Angelina Jolie has star power. Jeff Bridges might attract a few die hard fans but he certainly isn’t a huge star that will make people flock to the movie theater. As for Olivia Wilde, she is a rising starlet but her time is still at least a year away and she has absolutely nothing to do in the conversation in terms of attracting the crowd to the multiplex. Heck, she hasn’t even done anything of note except for a minor role in House M.D.
3) We will know in a few days! I think it will come in near that $50 million mark but even if it did, the movie would be unlikely to pass the $200 million mark domestically and certainly a very long way from becoming profitable which I would estimate to be at least $600 million.
2 – Well, I meant a legacy in terms of infrastructure to start building new franchises. (I watched the Pirates trailer yesterday and I kind of barfed in my mouth a little.) Getting the technology in place to be able to compete with what Cameron’s built, and to be able to harness the power of Pixar and bring it into the “real world”.
2.5 – Disney isn’t in the habit of relying on star power to get butts in the seats though. They work from a more spectacle side of things – most of the time. But your point is well taken, Bridges isn’t a Smith or Jolie or whatnot – I just make a habit out of sticking up for Jeff. Wilde has yet to really blow up, but she is showing up in a lot of places in upcoming movies, she’s like next years Zoe Saldana. Hopefully she’s as talented.
3 – I think that if you amortize its potential losses going back 30 years in time since its predecessor, it could be seen as a success no matter what happens.
You know what? I’m way out of line with that first point. I just liked Hackers better than The Net. Bullock’s star power was able to trump Jolie’s virtual anonymity at the time… It’s still a better idea to make movies about the “impression” of the computer world, rather than talking about processing power and grounding it in the state of the art of that time… ’cause it can’t stay current for more than a year.
It did really well Thursday night. I don’t know what that means for the weekend, but I hope it’s good.
I just saw it in 3D and I said to my friend it was the most amazing audiovisual experience I’ve probably had.
Though sure, it was the first 3D picture I’ve seen and the theater was absolute top notch, but I really liked the movie, had no complaints about anything, the 3D worked great, the visuals were amazing and the soundtrack was absolutely spot on ridiculously amazing.
In my opinion; people who don’t go and see it in the theaters will be missing out.
So the content that it has, is no way “flop material” in my opinion, but the sad fact is that not alot of people know about Tron or appreciate the whole virtual world concept.
But I do recommend it.
(Though sure, most will probably disagree with me on the “most amazing audiovisual experience ever” thing and the way everyone always critisize movies like stuck up critics, most of you will probbaly hate this one aswell as everyone seems to hate.. pretty much every big movie these days. But I really and honestly enjoyed it ALOT. And thought it was an amazing experience.)
First weekend estimates are out: Tron Legacy racked up $43.6 million on opening weekend which is well below the $50 million mark. Certainly not a big flop but definitely disappointing for Disney as they will have a hard time to turn in a profit.
In what universe is 87% of total well below the mark? Come on, Castor! Time to put on some rose coloured glasses and see the glass as half full!
$50 million is just an imaginary mark. Even with a $55 million opening, the movie probably would have a hard time getting above the cumulative $200 million mark. Then optimistically, another $300 million on the foreign box office. That’s still a long way from profitability for the studio.
A really excellent film! Not sure if all the money they poured into it was up on the screen, but most of it was. There are some flaws, but as a sequel to the original film I think it did a remarkable job. If you compare how it handled dated material an recontextualized it, it is a far superior work than the Star Wars prequels (not that it’s a tall order). I am curious if some of the loose ends are meant for a possible sequel (which I’m prepared to admit likely won’t happen) or if they are part of elements left on the cutting room floor.
PS. Thanks for getting me actively engaged in the film, Castor! It’s great to watch a film when there’s something at stake.
Aahah no problem Steve
People are just complete idiots these days, Tron Legacy was more visually stunning and more action packed than Avatar and yet it didn’t even make half a billion dollars? Yet Avatar went on to gross almost 3 billion dollars. That just doesn’t make any sense and shows how stupid people are. I enjoyed Avatar and went to see it twice in Imax 3D. I thought that it was the best visual looking movie I’ve ever seen in theater. Then I saw the trailer to Tron Legacy, I didn’t even know it was a sequel to the original Tron. In anticipation to the overwhelming stunning state of the art trailer to Tron Legacy that I kept seeing in previews to other Imax & Imax 3D movies that I was watching, I took it upon myself to watch the original Tron while I awaited Tron Legacy. Finally I saw Tron Legacy in Imax 3D and was completely blown away by the use of 3D and the special effects itself. Tron Legacy completely blew Avatar out the water in special effects which had me ended up watching it 3 times in Imax 3D. I’m expecting the same people who saw Avatar, would end up flocking to this movie when it came out but that wasn’t the case. We all know movies like Avatar and Tron Legacy are all about the cool stunning effects and use of 3D but not many people went to see Tron. Here’s my conclusion as to why, Avatar had drama and a love story attached to it as compared to Tron Legacy which was a pure over the top special effects action movie. There you go, Tron Legacy was a guy’s movie while Avatar pulled in the female audience and probably some kids as well.
While the movie was a losing proposition for the studio, making “only” $171 million in the US and $394 million total, it certainly didn’t bomb. This is still a very respectable number for a follow-up to a relatively small cult movie and it could be a nice base to start from. The question is whether Disney will gamble more money into a sequel to see if they can turn this into a profitable franchise.
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