Forecasting Oscar’s Decisions: 2013 Nomination Predictions

Early on Thursday, Seth McFarlane and Emma Stone will be presenting us with the official 2013 Academy Award nominations. This year’s race is a little more interesting than most recent years. While the Best Picture category is usually down to one or two titles by now, there are at least four – maybe five – film that have a legitimate shot at winning it all. Lincoln seems to be the favorite as of right now, but Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, are all right behind them. Silver Linings Playbook seemed to be a heavy favorite just a few weeks ago, and has been well received after its public release, but understandably failed to hit home with below the line guilds, which give the other four a major advantage. Even Life of Pi still has a slight chance at winning, but missing out on a Screen Actors Guild nomination left the movie limping.

But enough of the that talk, we are here for the nominations. All six movies mentioned above are virtual locks for a Best Picture nomination. Just to reiterate to keep up with ever-changing rules, there may be as little as five or as many as ten Best Picture nominees, making predictions a little more difficult. Last year, I predicted ten films in the category. I think that’s the cheap way out (“Hey look, I got all eight right!”), and trying to predict the actual number of nominees should provide a more precise interpretation on where the Academy stands. That being said, I’ve been back and forth between seven and eight nominees all days long. I think Beasts of the Southern Wild gets in, as the emotional punch from the movie will likely have a good amount of voters placing it as their #1 film. And on the other end of the spectrum, I’m not sure how somebody can watch Moonrise Kingdom and not have a smile on their face the entire time. And having such a wonderful ensemble certainly helps, since actors make up the largest voting block. Whether to include Moonrise Kingdom or not is the toughest decision for me. A semi-bold prediction that I will make for the category, however, is that Django will be left out. It’s been well received, and most people have it receiving a nomination, but I question how many people would have it as their #1 or #2 on their lists.

There are categories that are pretty much all set. Best Actor is essentially down to six guys unless the Academy throws in a foreign curveball like they did last year. Jean-Louis Trintignant (Amour) or even Omar Sy (The Intouchables) could sneak in, but it’s highly unlikely. Best Actress is essentially the same way, only with one more (Rachel Weisz has received too much praise to be completely ignored, and brings our list of legitimate contenders to seven). The big question here is whether the category will nominate two foreign language performances. Marion Cotillard should be considered a semi-lock, and Emmanuelle Riva is a favorite as well. This would be only the fourth time in history that two foreign language performances were nominated in the same category (1966, 1975, 1976), although it’s worth noting that none of those nominations ended up winning. Best Supporting Actor is where things get out of hand, even though there are five generally agreed upon choices. The Django trifecta, Dwight Henry (Beasts), and McConaughey (Magic Mike) could all easily receive a nomination. The main question in this category is to whether or not the Django actors will cancel each other out. Supporting Actress has three locks (Hathaway, Field, Hunt), but the race from there has give or six actresses that could contend for the final two slots. As much as I want them to compete, I think Ann Dowd (Compliance) and Samantha Barks (Les Miserables) end up outside of the list, leaving Maggie Smith, Amy Adams, Judi Dench, and Nicole Kidman fighting for the last two spots.

I could sit her and analyze the rest of the categories, but I’m sure I’ve talked enough already. And so it is, here are my predictions for the 2013 Oscar nominations (in order of rank):

Best Picture

• Argo
• Lincoln
• Zero Dark Thirty
• Les Miserables
• Life of Pi
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Beats of the Southern Wild
• Moonrise Kingdom
• Just Missed: Django Unchained

Best Director

• Ben Affleck, Argo
• Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
• Katheryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
• Ang Lee, Life of Pi
• Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
• Just Missed: Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Best Actor

• Daniel-Day Lewis, Lincoln
• Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
• Denzel Washington, Flight
• Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
• Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
• Just Missed: John Hawkes, The Sessions

Best Actress

• Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
• Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
• Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
• Emannuelle Riva, Amour
• Naomi Watts, The Impossible
• Just Missed: Quvenzhane Wallis, Beats of the Southern Wild

Best Supporting Actor

• Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
• Alan Arkin, Argo
• Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
• Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
• Javier Bardem, Skyfall
• Just Missed: Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actress

• Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
• Sally Field, Lincoln
• Helen Hunt, The Sessions
• Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
• Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
• Just Missed: Amy Adams, The Master

Best Original Screenplay

• Zero Dark Thirty
• Moonrise Kingdom
• The Master
• Django Unchained
• Looper
• Just Missed: Amour

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Lincoln
• Argo
• Life of Pi
• Silver Linings Playbook
• The Perks of Being a Wallflower
• Just Missed: Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Cinematography

• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Skyfall
• Zero Dark Thirty
• Anna Karenina
• Just Missed: Les Miserables

Best Costume Deisgn

• Anna Karenina
• Les Miserables
• Lincoln
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• Moonrise Kingdom
• Just Missed: Django Unchained

Best Production Design

• Anna Karenina
• Les Miserables
• Lincoln
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• Argo
• Just Missed: Django Unchained

Best Editing

• Argo
• Zero Dark Thirty
• Lincoln
• Life of Pi
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Just Missed: Les Miserables

Best Makeup

• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• Lincoln
• Les Miserables
• Just Missed: Looper

Best Sound Mixing

• Skyfall
• Zero Dark Thirty
• Les Miserables
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• The Avengers
• Just Missed: Django Unchained

Best Sound Editing

• Skyfall
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• The Avengers
• Zero Dark Thirty
• The Dark Knight Rises
• Just Missed: Django Unchained

Best Original Score

• Life of Pi
• Cloud Atlas
• Anna Karenina
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Argo
• Just Missed: Lincoln

Best Original Song

• “Skyfall” from Skyfall
• “Suddenly” from Les Miserables
• “Song of the Lonely Mountain” from The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• “Learn Me Right” from Brave
• “From Here to the Moon and Back” from Joyful Noise
• Just Missed: “Freedom” from Django Unchained

Best Visual Effects

• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• The Avengers
• Life of Pi
• Cloud Atlas
• Prometheus
• Just Missed: The Dark Knight Rises

Best Animated Feature

• Brave
• Wreck-it Ralph
• Frankenweenie
• ParaNorman
• The Painting
• Just Missed: Rise of the Guardians

Best Foreign Language Film

• Amour
• The Intouchables
• War Witch
• Kon-Tiki
• Beyond the Hills
• Just Missed: No

Best Documentary Feature

• Searching for Sugarman
• The Gatekeepers
• The Imposter
• Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
• The Invisible War
• Just Missed: Detropia

And that does it for this year’s nominations! What surprises do you think will be announced Thursday morning? What movies did I not give enough credit to? What movies am I predicting too many nominations for?