Forecasting Oscar’s Decisions: Initial 2014 Picks

While the 2013 Oscar telecast is still being digested and dissected, we felt the need to look ahead to next year’s ceremony. We’ve done this the past two years, and haven’t done so bad with predicted which films will be in the race. The 2012 ceremony predictions saw four correct Best Picture nominations, while the predictions for this year only saw three, despite a summer posting time. I did, however, have eight of the nominees listed as contenders or better. Silver Linings Playbook was the only exception to that rule, as I was hesitant to name a film led by Bradley Cooper as a major awards contender. The funny thing is that I actually had Jacki Weaver and Robert De Niro under my predicted five for their respective categories. You win some, you lose some. As for the eventual Best Picture winner, Argo, I had it listed as only a contender, as the Academy had largely ignored Affleck’s previous two films, save for a couple of supporting actor nominations.

Looking ahead to next year, we have plenty of big names to consider. Scorsese, Reitman, Payne, and Clooney are just a few of the usual Academy suspects that have films coming out this year. The real challenge of making lists like these any time before December is that you can’t ignore these names as potential winners, let alone exclude them from your top ten. And last year proved just that, with Beasts of the Southern Wild director Benh Zeitlin being the only no-name to be nominated. And really, we won’t really know anything until Cannes at the earliest, with Toronto and Venice bringing things into focus when we get into the fall.

That being said, it’s always fun to look ahead and to have films to be excited about. I’ve already covered the top 100 movies to look forward to this year, and you will see that plenty of those films listed here as well. And then there are popular films like Only God Forgives and The Place Beyond the Pines that others might be projecting ass possible Oscar contenders, but I don’t really see the Academy welcoming those films (the performances are still game, however). This really is just a shot in the dark, and I hardly expect to get more than a couple of these correct. But there’s still a conversation to be had here, and so with that we’ll move right into the predictions.

Best Picture

August: Osage County
Foxcatcher
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Labor Day
A Most Wanted Man
The Monuments Men
Saving Mr. Banks
Serena
The Wolf of Wall Street

Other Contenders

About Time
Before Midnight
The Butler
The Counselor
Fruitvale
The Great Gatsby
Nebraska
Nightingale (Lowlife)
The Spectacular Now
To the Wonder
Trance
Twelve Years a Slave
The Way, Way Back
Winter’s Tale

Best Director

Susanne Bier, Serena
George Clooney, The Monuments Men
Ethan and Joel Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Jason Reitman, Labor Day
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

Other Contenders

Danny Boyle, Trance
Anton Corbjin, A Most Wanted Man
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Richard Curtis, About Time
Lee Daniels, The Butler
Nat Faxon/Jim Rash, The Way, Way Back
James Gray, Nightingale (Lowlife)
Akive Goldsman, Winter’s Tale
John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
Baz Luhrmann, The Great Gatsby
Terrence Malick, To the Wonder
Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
James Ponsoldt, The Spectacular Now
Ridley Scott, The Counselor
John Wells, August: Osage County

Best Actor

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
George Clooney, The Monuments Men/Gravity
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Forest Whitaker, The Butler

Other Contenders

Ben Affleck, To the Wonder
Bradley Cooper, Serena
Russell Crowe, Winter’s Tale
Chiwetel Ejiofar, Twelve Years a Slave
Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
Domhnall Gleeson, About Time
Ryan Gosling, Only God Forgives
James McAvoy, Trance
Matthew McConaughey, Mud
Jeremy Renner, Nightingale (Lowlife)
Will Smith, Winter’s Tale
Miles Teller, The Spectacular Now

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Marion Cotillard, Nightingale (Lowlife)
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Naomi Watts, Diana
Kate Winslet, Labor Day

Other Contenders

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Jessica Chastain, Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby: Her
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Judi Dench, Philomena
Charlotte Gainsbourg, Nymphomaniac
Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
Keira Knightley, Can a Song Save Your Life?
Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
Rachel McAdams, About Time
Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now

Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin, Labor Day
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Philip Seymour Hoffman, A Most Wanted Man
Alan Rickman, The Butler
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

Other Contenders

Javier Bardem, To the Wonder
Steve Carell, The Way, Way Back
Benedict Cumberbatch, August: Osage County
Matt Damon, The Monuments Men
Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave
Paul Giamatti, Saving Mr. Banks
Terrence Howard, The Bulter
Rhys Ifans, Serena
Ewan McGregor, August: Osage County
Bill Murray, The Monuments Men
Bill Night, About Time
Brad Pitt, Twelve Years a Slave/The Counselor
Joaquin Phoenix, Nightingale (Lowlife)
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
Justin Timberlake, Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
Meryl Streep, Augst: Osage County
Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

Other Contenders

Cate Blanchett, The Monuments Men
Rosario Dawson, Trance
Minka Kelly, The Butler
Allison Janney, The Way, Way Back
Rachel McAdams, To the Wonder/A Most Wanted Man
Sienna Miller, Foxcatcher
Sarah Paulson, Twelve Years a Slave
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, The Spectacuklar Now
Reese Witherspoon, Mud

Best Adapted Screenplay

August: Osage County
Labor Day
The Monuments Men
A Most Wanted Man
The Wolf of Wall Street

Other Contenders

The Butler
The Counselor
The Hobbit: The Delosation of Smaug
Serena
The Spectacular Now
Winter’s Tale

Best Original Screenplay

Before Midnight
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
To the Wonder

Other Contenders

About Time
Blue Jasmine
Foxcatcher
Fruitvale
Mud
Nightingale (Lowlife)
Saving Mr. Banks
Trance
The Way, Way Back

Best Animated Feature

Despicable Me 2
Epic
Frozen
Monsters University
Turbo

What movies do you think will be Oscar contenders next year? Any sleepers that people should keep an eye out for?